Judgment in the Hiring Room

All 10 principles. One real decision. Should we hire this VP of Marketing? Watch judgment in action — not theory.

Think probabilistically: given what we know, there's maybe a 40% chance this hire succeeds. Name that number — don't just feel good about the candidate.

Seek disconfirming evidence: call references who weren't on the provided list. Check context: does their experience match THIS market?

Name your non-goals: you're NOT hiring for cultural fit alone. Map stakeholders: who will this person frustrate? Own the consequence: this hire is yours.

The pitfall in hiring: overweighting the interview and underweighting the track record. The best predictor of future work is past work.

The 10 principles aren't a checklist to slow you down — they're a lens that lets you see the decision clearly before you commit.

You watched all 10 principles applied to one hiring decision. Now it's your turn — on a real decision you're currently facing.

Today's exercise: pick a real decision — hiring, strategy, budget, build vs. buy. Walk it through all 10 principles. Write a half-page memo.

Start with: what's the probability this goes well? Name the number. Then ask: what evidence would change my mind? Write that too.

Work through the remaining 8 principles: context, sequencing, non-goals, calibration, stakeholders, consequences, visible reasoning, checklist.

Now share your memo with someone who will push back. Not a cheerleader — a challenger. Their objection is your most valuable data.

Multiple points of light on your compass now. Each principle a star, all pointing in the same direction — a decision made with full clarity.